Probabilistic reasoning (

A knight wants to find and kill a dragon who lives in a maze. The knight has a bag of pills, where each pill can either be magical (magical) or not magical (magical). The knight does not know which pills are magical, but does know that the bag contains 5 magical pills and 15 non-magical ones. Thus, the probability of the knight pulling a magical pill from the bag, i.e. P(magical), is 0,25 and the probability of non-magical pill, P(magical), is 0,75.
When fighting the dragon, the knight can either win (win) or not win (—win) the battle. Before encountering the dragon, the knight eats a random pill from the bag. The following then holds:
• Given that the knight ate a magic pill, there is a 70% chance of winning the battle against the dragon, i.e. P(winlmagical) = 0.7 = 7/10. • Given that the knight ate a non-magic pill, there is a 20% chance of winning the battle against the dragon, i.e. P(winl—magical) = 0.2 = 1/5.
Let the two binary random variables M E (magical, —.magical j and W E win, —win) represent the outcome of the pill pulled from the bag and the outcome of the battle, respectively.
Now solve the tasks below. In order to obtain the maximum points, you will have to state your calculations clearly (at least which formula you use and which values goes where), as well as the final probabilities. Also note that some tasks might require you to do a calculation in several steps. Each task is worth 1 point.
Task a. What are the marginal probabilities of W, i.e. what is P(win) and P(win)?
Task b. Calculate the conditional probabilities P(—win I magical) and P(win I —.magical).
Task c. What is the probability that the knight ate a magic pill, given that the battle was won?

Calculate your paper price
Pages (550 words)
Approximate price: -

High Quality Papers

We always make sure that writers follow all your instructions precisely. You can choose your academic level or professional level, and we will assign a writer who has a respective degree.


Experienced Writers

We have a team of professional writers with experience in academic and business writing. Many are native speakers and able to perform any task for which you need help.


Free Revisions

If you think we missed something, send your order for a free revision. You have 10 days to submit the order for review after you have received the final document.


Timely Delivery

All papers are always delivered on time. In case we need more time to master your paper, we may contact you regarding the deadline extension.A 100% refund is guaranteed.


100% Confidential

We use several writing tools checks to ensure that all documents you receive are free from plagiarism. Our editors carefully review all quotations in the text.


24/7 Customer Services

Tutorpro support agents are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week and committed to providing you with the best customer experience. Get in touch whenever you need any assistance.

Try it now!

Calculate the price of your order

Total price:

How it works?

Follow these simple steps to get your paper done

Place your order

Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.

Proceed with the payment

Choose the payment system that suits you most.

Receive the final file

Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.

Tutorpro Homework Help Services

At Tutorpro, we have top rated masters and PhD writers who will help you tacke that homework and score A+ grade. Tutorpro services covers all levels of education : high school, college, university undergraduate, masters and PhD academic level.


Essay Writing

No matter what kind of academic paper you need and how urgent you need it, you are welcome to choose your academic level and the type of your paper at an affordable price. We take care of all your paper needs and give a 24/7 customer care support system.



Admission Essays

An admission essay is an essay or other written statement by a candidate, often a potential student enrolling in a college, university, or graduate school. You can be rest assurred that through our service we will write the best admission essay for you.



Essay Editing

Tutorpro academic writers and editors make the necessary changes to your paper so that it is polished. We also format your document by correctly quoting the sources and creating reference lists in the formats APA, Harvard, MLA, Chicago / Turabian.



Revision Support

If you think your paper could be improved, you can request a review. In this case, your paper will be checked by the writer or assigned to an editor. This is free because we want you to be completely satisfied with the service offered.